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Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for the side's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, though, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.

According to the data, in only two games has the side posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look strangely fragile – however currently the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The winger may rediscover the player he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.

This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.